Probability & Statistics
The math primitives an agent runs on — distributions, entropy, hypothesis tests, and Bayesian updates.
Calibration
A forecaster is calibrated when things it says are 70% likely happen 70% of the time. Calibration measures whether stated probabilities match reality — the foundation of honest sizing.
KL Divergence
Kullback-Leibler divergence measures how far one probability distribution sits from another. It quantifies information lost when you approximate reality with a model — or how far two markets have drifted apart.